Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1840 at 05:10, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1840 Southwest Flight history →	EUG 05:10	SMF 06:30	3%	1%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	2h 09m Portland	PDX 08:15 → SMF 09:48AS 485	4h 28m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	7h 01m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 16m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	6h 02m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	EUG 12:32 → SEA 13:58DL 4139 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Portland	PDX 17:59 → SMF 19:37AS 1622	3h 37m	92%	78%
Alaska Details →	EUG 12:34 → PDX 13:26AS 3062 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Portland	PDX 14:32 → SMF 16:06AS 2405 · flown by Horizon	3h 32m	88%	75%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	91%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 11:55 → SMF 13:57AS 1428	4h 12m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON