tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 450 United Flight history → EWR 15:28 ANC 19:12 18% 6% 0.9% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → IAH 10:44UA 332 3h 36m Houston IAH 14:20 → ANC 18:41UA 2369 14h 42m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:04 → ANC 12:56UA 840 10h 56m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 2h 35m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 12h 23m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:50 → SFO 15:01UA 1343 3h 46m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40UA 1594 14h 50m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 3h 17m Denver DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592 13h 12m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:25 → ORD 13:08UA 1875 3h 02m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 29m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 3h 27m Denver DEN 20:25 → ANC 23:59UA 400 13h 19m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:40 → SFO 13:51UA 648 2h 59m San Francisco SFO 16:50 → ANC 20:49UA 1656 14h 09m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 59m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40UA 1594 11h 55m 72% 59%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:36 → SEA 20:58AS 462 59m Seattle SEA 21:57 → ANC 00:41 +1AS 1560 11h 05m 60% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON