Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1012 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 1012 EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1157 EWR 22:29 → ATL 00:52 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1012 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:23	6%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2353 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:15	7%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 1673 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:05	ATL 09:20	8%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 2365 Delta Flight history →	EWR 08:30	ATL 10:51	9%	4%	0.8%	84%
UA 2669 United Flight history →	EWR 08:45	ATL 11:08	10%	4%	0.7%	78%
F9 4601 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:55	ATL 08:44	10%	5%	1.2%	75%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	EWR 10:31	ATL 12:53	11%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	EWR 12:00	ATL 14:30	12%	5%	0.8%	81%
UA 642 United Flight history →	EWR 11:00	ATL 13:23	13%	6%	0.7%	77%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:29	ATL 16:00	16%	5%	0.8%	80%
UA 1307 United Flight history →	EWR 13:02	ATL 15:28	17%	8%	0.8%	72%
UA 1848 United Flight history →	EWR 16:18	ATL 19:01	20%	12%	0.8%	76%
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:21	ATL 17:54	22%	8%	0.8%	70%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	EWR 16:29	ATL 19:14	22%	9%	0.8%	75%
DL 2430 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:59	ATL 21:54	26%	10%	1.1%	60%
UA 1991 United Flight history →	EWR 17:12	ATL 19:46	28%	14%	0.8%	72%
UA 1287 United Flight history →	EWR 19:52	ATL 22:22	30%	15%	0.9%	67%
F9 1157 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 22:29	ATL 00:52	41%	20%	1.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON