Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2035 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2035 EWR 06:05 → AUS 09:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2645 EWR 20:30 → AUS 23:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2035 United Flight history →	EWR 06:05	AUS 09:01	5%	2%	0.7%	100%
UA 1155 United Flight history →	EWR 12:20	AUS 15:16	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 2289 United Flight history →	EWR 15:10	AUS 18:11	20%	10%	0.7%	78%
UA 676 United Flight history →	EWR 19:28	AUS 22:34	25%	13%	0.8%	73%
UA 2645 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	AUS 23:29	30%	12%	0.9%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → AUS 10:42AA 1413	5h 51m	93%	71%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	48m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → AUS 12:15AA 1419	5h 45m	83%	71%
United Details →	EWR 12:36 → IAH 15:34UA 2204	46m Houston	IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711	5h 51m	78%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON