tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4430 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 13:49 AVL 15:54 24% 10% 12.1% 76%
UA 4405 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 20:59 AVL 23:15 31% 20% 12.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 3h 38m Charlotte CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 6h 49m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 09:05 → AVL 10:19AA 6030 · flown by Piedmont 5h 19m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182 6h 07m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → AVL 11:08DL 573 5h 08m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 47m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → AVL 12:20DL 2181 6h 05m 93% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185 55m Chicago ORD 08:10 → AVL 11:09AA 3981 · flown by Envoy 5h 39m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099 6h 10m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → EWR 10:40 → ORD 12:25AA 3170 3h 04m Chicago ORD 15:29 → AVL 18:25AA 3406 · flown by Envoy 7h 45m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:25 → ORD 13:08UA 1875 47m Chicago ORD 13:55 → AVL 16:58UA 5573 · flown by SkyWest 5h 33m 75% 56%
DeltaDetails → EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430 52m Atlanta ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116 4h 47m 70% 54%
AmericanDetails → EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811 1h 43m Charlotte CLT 23:15 → AVL 00:15 +1AA 5588 · flown by PSA 4h 46m 70% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON