Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3423 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 3423 EWR 09:30 → BGR 11:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 3408 EWR 21:42 → BGR 23:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3423 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:30	BGR 11:04	10%	3%	1.2%	96%
UA 3454 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:55	BGR 18:39	17%	6%	1.3%	84%
UA 3408 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:42	BGR 23:15	22%	7%	2.1%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON