Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1428 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1428 EWR 06:52 → BNA 08:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1261 EWR 21:28 → BNA 23:02 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1428 United Flight history →	EWR 06:52	BNA 08:16	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 1616 United Flight history →	EWR 10:55	BNA 12:18	14%	3%	0.7%	77%
UA 1884 United Flight history →	EWR 13:08	BNA 14:39	15%	5%	0.7%	65%
UA 1608 United Flight history →	EWR 15:00	BNA 16:32	16%	7%	0.7%	72%
UA 2454 United Flight history →	EWR 16:05	BNA 17:46	18%	7%	0.7%	67%
UA 1261 United Flight history →	EWR 21:28	BNA 23:02	21%	8%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON