Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 593 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 593 EWR 07:00 → BOS 08:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2763 EWR 18:00 → BOS 19:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 593 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	BOS 08:17	6%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 5764 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:30	BOS 10:54	7%	2%	0.9%	95%
UA 1110 United Flight history →	EWR 08:35	BOS 09:51	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 375 United Flight history →	EWR 10:00	BOS 11:16	11%	5%	0.8%	80%
UA 1669 United Flight history →	EWR 11:59	BOS 13:16	13%	6%	0.7%	85%
DL 5829 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:10	BOS 16:36	23%	7%	0.9%	68%
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:40	BOS 22:18	25%	9%	1.6%	67%
UA 1536 United Flight history →	EWR 15:22	BOS 16:38	28%	12%	0.7%	56%
UA 2058 United Flight history →	EWR 20:25	BOS 21:53	31%	15%	0.8%	61%
UA 2763 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	BOS 19:28	35%	17%	0.8%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON