Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 569 at 19:08, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 569 United Flight history →	EWR 19:08	BQN 23:09	26%	6%	0.8%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aguadilla on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	EWR 06:00 → FLL 09:00B6 1505	2h 10m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 11:10 → BQN 13:42B6 2071	7h 42m	98%	70%
JetBlue Details →	EWR 15:28 → FLL 18:30B6 685	3h 29m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 21:59 → BQN 00:33 +1B6 2471	9h 05m	93%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON