tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3529 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 3529 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 08:25 BUF 09:53 8% 2% 1.1% 86%
UA 3476 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 21:18 BUF 22:59 23% 6% 2.3% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:25 → BUF 09:51UA 3514 · flown by Republic 3h 51m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 2h 51m Chicago ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226 7h 21m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 11:06 → BUF 12:51AA 1616 6h 51m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 7h 33m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:10 → BUF 11:22DL 3636 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 55m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 11m 91% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 2h 17m Detroit DTW 14:00 → BUF 15:13DL 3642 · flown by SkyWest 5h 18m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864 1h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 6h 37m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:25 → ORD 13:08UA 1875 47m Chicago ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226 5h 16m 75% 64%
UnitedDetails → EWR 15:08 → IAD 16:32UA 1992 58m Dulles IAD 17:30 → BUF 19:03UA 4823 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 55m 75% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON