Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 2505 EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1811 EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2505 American Flight history →	EWR 06:00	CLT 08:01	6%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 1113 American Flight history →	EWR 05:00	CLT 06:57	7%	2%	0.8%	92%
UA 3517 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 07:25	CLT 09:31	8%	3%	0.9%	95%
AA 1575 American Flight history →	EWR 07:30	CLT 09:35	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
UA 3504 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:03	CLT 12:07	11%	3%	0.9%	84%
UA 3537 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:00	CLT 15:09	12%	3%	0.9%	84%
UA 3533 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:01	CLT 17:10	15%	5%	0.9%	81%
AA 1819 American Flight history →	EWR 13:30	CLT 15:34	19%	6%	0.8%	80%
UA 2104 United Flight history →	EWR 18:08	CLT 20:22	26%	9%	0.6%	65%
AA 1811 American Flight history →	EWR 19:29	CLT 21:32	42%	13%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON