Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3417 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 3417 EWR 08:24 → CVG 10:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 3667 EWR 20:59 → CVG 23:21 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3417 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:24	CVG 10:36	8%	2%	0.8%	83%
UA 3473 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:21	CVG 15:33	12%	3%	0.9%	93%
G4 363 Allegiant Flight history →	EWR 10:55	CVG 12:50	19%	8%	0.7%	89%
UA 3472 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:30	CVG 21:52	21%	6%	1.3%	79%
UA 3667 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:59	CVG 23:21	22%	6%	1.6%	82%
DL 5026 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:45	CVG 11:53	14%	5%	1.4%	86%
DL 5065 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 20:15	CVG 22:27	27%	15%	8.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON