Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1712 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1712 EWR 06:40 → DFW 09:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2856 EWR 18:50 → DFW 21:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1712 United Flight history →	EWR 06:40	DFW 09:24	6%	3%	0.8%	100%
AA 2728 American Flight history →	EWR 05:51	DFW 08:40	7%	3%	1.3%	95%
UA 454 United Flight history →	EWR 09:06	DFW 11:54	10%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 1303 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	DFW 10:51	12%	5%	0.9%	85%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DFW 15:50	14%	7%	0.8%	82%
AA 1441 American Flight history →	EWR 12:21	DFW 15:10	16%	7%	0.9%	60%
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:30	DFW 18:28	17%	10%	0.8%	71%
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	22%	10%	0.9%	74%
UA 424 United Flight history →	EWR 21:09	DFW 23:59	24%	10%	1.1%	59%
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	30%	13%	1.3%	47%
UA 2856 United Flight history →	EWR 18:50	DFW 21:44	32%	12%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577	52m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → DFW 17:36DL 1543	5h 36m	81%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON