Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2596 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2596 EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2567 EWR 20:25 → DTW 22:38 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2596 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	DTW 07:50	6%	3%	0.8%	91%
UA 3672 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 07:30	DTW 09:31	6%	3%	0.9%	97%
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	EWR 09:55	DTW 11:43	11%	4%	0.8%	84%
UA 3437 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:07	DTW 16:07	13%	4%	1.0%	85%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DTW 14:58	15%	5%	0.8%	82%
UA 3596 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:20	DTW 18:19	16%	6%	1.1%	81%
UA 3412 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:15	DTW 23:24	19%	6%	1.8%	75%
UA 3586 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:17	DTW 20:30	19%	7%	1.3%	80%
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	EWR 16:50	DTW 18:51	26%	9%	0.9%	74%
DL 2567 Delta Flight history →	EWR 20:25	DTW 22:38	33%	10%	1.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON