Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1418 at 10:18, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1418 United Flight history →	EWR 10:18	EYW 13:30	22%	5%	2.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	7h 23m	98%	80%
American Details →	EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45AA 1196	1h 10m Miami	MIA 09:55 → EYW 10:55AA 3515 · flown by Envoy	5h 24m	95%	79%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 10:00 → EYW 12:14AA 1826	7h 14m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → EYW 19:56DL 2815	7h 56m	99%	75%
United Details →	EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 10:55 → EYW 15:19UA 3690 · flown by Republic	8h 04m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168	6h 52m	98%	71%
American Details →	EWR 06:56 → ORD 08:44AA 3267	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:29 → EYW 15:50AA 3996 · flown by Envoy	8h 54m	97%	68%
American Details →	EWR 12:25 → MIA 15:38AA 2981	2h 27m Miami	MIA 18:05 → EYW 19:06AA 3517 · flown by Envoy	6h 41m	94%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON