Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1364 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–45%.

Safest bet that day UA 1364 EWR 07:00 → FLL 10:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 305 EWR 20:46 → FLL 23:55 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1364 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	FLL 10:05	10%	3%	1.1%	92%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:00	FLL 09:00	10%	4%	1.5%	82%
UA 2444 United Flight history →	EWR 08:35	FLL 11:40	16%	4%	1.0%	81%
UA 677 United Flight history →	EWR 11:37	FLL 14:42	18%	7%	1.0%	84%
UA 651 United Flight history →	EWR 13:05	FLL 16:15	20%	7%	1.0%	81%
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 08:00	FLL 11:04	20%	6%	1.4%	72%
UA 1907 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	FLL 20:48	32%	12%	3.8%	82%worse than usual
UA 1897 United Flight history →	EWR 20:44	FLL 23:59	33%	11%	2.3%	65%
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 15:28	FLL 18:30	40%	17%	2.3%	42%
B6 305 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:46	FLL 23:55	45%	20%	4.8%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON