Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3604 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 3604 EWR 08:30 → GSP 10:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 3606 EWR 20:59 → GSP 23:13 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3604 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:30	GSP 10:37	8%	2%	1.2%	84%
UA 3584 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:59	GSP 19:08	18%	5%	1.4%	86%
UA 3606 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:59	GSP 23:13	23%	6%	1.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON