tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195 7h 10m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 6h 51m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → EWR 08:00 → DFW 10:51AA 1303 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 8h 44m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 7h 30m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → EWR 12:21 → DFW 15:10AA 1441 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 8h 32m 93% 69%
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 7h 46m 89% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON