Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1366 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1366 EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2677 EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1366 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAD 07:22	4%	2%	0.8%	96%
UA 1691 United Flight history →	EWR 10:05	IAD 11:28	14%	5%	0.7%	72%
UA 1784 United Flight history →	EWR 21:50	IAD 23:19	23%	9%	0.8%	79%
UA 1992 United Flight history →	EWR 15:08	IAD 16:32	24%	10%	0.7%	68%
UA 2717 United	EWR 22:30	IAD 23:55	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 2677 United Flight history →	EWR 19:29	IAD 21:00	30%	13%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON