Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 492 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 492 EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2425 EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	11%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	14%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 2690 United Flight history →	EWR 14:12	IAH 17:10	16%	7%	0.6%	81%
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	20%	9%	0.6%	69%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	21%	10%	0.6%	69%
UA 265 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	IAH 22:38	21%	8%	0.6%	72%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	24%	7%	0.6%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468	59m New Orleans	MSY 15:43 → IAH 17:02UA 313	5h 29m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON