Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3587 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:22	ILM 12:12	10%	2%	1.0%	85%
UA 3592 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:53	ILM 23:44	19%	6%	2.2%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	6h 38m	99%	90%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → ILM 12:33AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont	6h 33m	98%	84%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → ILM 14:19AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont	6h 49m	98%	84%
United Details →	EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 11:34 → ILM 15:00UA 5932 · flown by SkyWest	7h 45m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 32m	99%	82%
American Details →	EWR 06:56 → ORD 08:44AA 3267	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → ILM 15:01AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	97%	82%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → ILM 12:51AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	7h 21m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	7h 35m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 13:30 → CLT 15:34AA 1819	50m Charlotte	CLT 16:24 → ILM 17:41AA 6116 · flown by Piedmont	4h 11m	73%	51%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	53m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017	4h 04m	47%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON