Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3683 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 3683 EWR 06:15 → IND 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 3705 EWR 19:53 → IND 22:15 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3683 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 06:15	IND 08:23	5%	2%	0.8%	90%
UA 3669 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:52	IND 12:05	10%	2%	0.8%	88%
UA 3446 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 11:54	IND 14:07	10%	3%	0.8%	87%
UA 3443 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:47	IND 18:06	18%	5%	0.8%	85%
UA 3519 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:29	IND 20:57	22%	6%	0.9%	81%
UA 3705 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:53	IND 22:15	23%	5%	1.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON