tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Jackson on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2612 United Flight history → EWR 17:59 JAC 21:00 31% 9% 1.2% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 8h 16m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 23m Chicago ORD 09:05 → JAC 11:35UA 307 7h 35m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 1h 58m Charlotte CLT 08:55 → JAC 11:10AA 1961 8h 10m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:09UA 1701 3h 46m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 9h 34m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 1h 35m Los Angeles LAX 10:28 → JAC 13:48UA 2110 9h 48m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315 10h 04m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 7h 00m 88% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:50 → SFO 15:01UA 1343 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 18:10 → JAC 21:30UA 1958 11h 40m 96% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON