Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1139 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1139 EWR 06:30 → LAS 08:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 1800 EWR 20:26 → LAS 23:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1139 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	LAS 08:54	8%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 1631 United Flight history →	EWR 09:00	LAS 11:28	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1864 United Flight history →	EWR 12:25	LAS 14:53	16%	6%	0.7%	86%
UA 446 United Flight history →	EWR 10:54	LAS 13:21	16%	5%	0.7%	82%
UA 1168 United Flight history →	EWR 14:40	LAS 17:08	25%	10%	0.7%	76%
UA 1149 United Flight history →	EWR 16:59	LAS 19:32	27%	11%	0.8%	63%
UA 1800 United Flight history →	EWR 20:26	LAS 23:05	31%	13%	0.8%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 16m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON