Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3436 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:47	MCI 17:02	17%	4%	0.8%	82%
UA 1399 United Flight history →	EWR 21:43	MCI 23:59	25%	9%	0.7%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561	7h 21m	100%	87%
American Details →	EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy	6h 53m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 10:20 → MCI 11:46DL 1608	6h 31m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → MCI 11:16DL 2908	6h 16m	97%	85%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492	3h 24m Houston	IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa	9h 15m	99%	85%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 09:55 → MCI 11:23AA 2052	7h 23m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	50m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	4h 44m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	6h 08m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573	58m Detroit	DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321	4h 59m	73%	58%
United Details →	EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45UA 1197	55m Denver	DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596	7h 13m	67%	54%
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	54m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911	5h 59m	71%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON