Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1727 EWR 18:45 → MCO 21:42 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	6%	2%	12.9%	96%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 07:00	MCO 09:49	11%	4%	10.4%	75%
UA 2719 United Flight history →	EWR 07:47	MCO 10:34	11%	4%	15.6%	88%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	14%	5%	16.7%	76%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	16%	7%	17.7%	87%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 14:05	MCO 17:03	22%	9%	16.8%	81%
F9 2511 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:30	MCO 14:26	22%	10%	17.9%	80%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	24%	13%	17.4%	77%
UA 1213 United Flight history →	EWR 15:05	MCO 18:03	24%	12%	17.3%	74%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	28%	11%	17.3%	73%
UA 1932 United Flight history →	EWR 18:37	MCO 21:38	31%	15%	17.4%	56%
B6 1727 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MCO 21:42	43%	21%	17.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON