Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3650 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:29	MEM 15:25	13%	4%	1.0%	83%
UA 3563 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:23	MEM 23:30	20%	6%	2.0%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	57m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MEM 09:40DL 3137	4h 40m	94%	85%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492	3h 14m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41UA 5758 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	99%	85%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 09:10 → MEM 10:00AA 2110	6h 00m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895	2h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	8h 15m	96%	83%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	96%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	6h 06m	74%	61%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	1h 24m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → MEM 23:45AA 2392	5h 16m	68%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON