Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1196 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1196 EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3119 EWR 18:30 → MIA 21:55 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1196 American Flight history →	EWR 05:31	MIA 08:45	8%	2%	1.6%	95%
UA 2785 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	MIA 10:02	13%	3%	1.2%	97%worse than usual
AA 1152 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	MIA 11:10	15%	4%	1.6%	93%
UA 2295 United Flight history →	EWR 11:31	MIA 14:38	27%	8%	1.6%	81%
AA 2981 American Flight history →	EWR 12:25	MIA 15:38	28%	10%	1.8%	55%
UA 1511 United Flight history →	EWR 13:00	MIA 16:16	31%	11%	1.3%	68%
UA 2213 United Flight history →	EWR 15:59	MIA 19:25	34%	14%	1.3%	62%
UA 1128 United Flight history →	EWR 20:08	MIA 23:26	34%	14%	1.5%	73%
AA 3119 American Flight history →	EWR 18:30	MIA 21:55	36%	16%	2.7%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON