Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3608 at 08:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3608 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:33	MSN 10:04	9%	2%	1.2%	85%
UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:59	MSN 20:39	20%	6%	1.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 11:25 → MSN 12:47AA 5457 · flown by PSA	7h 47m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:30 → BOS 10:54DL 5764 · flown by Republic	2h 14m Boston	BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic	6h 33m	99%	86%
American Details →	EWR 06:56 → ORD 08:44AA 3267	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:22 → MSN 12:32AA 3437 · flown by Envoy	6h 36m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	98%	86%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	2h 15m Denver	DEN 11:00 → MSN 14:10UA 2368	8h 40m	99%	84%
United Details →	EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → MSN 11:49UA 5843 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 22m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	8h 21m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 19:12 → ORD 21:00UA 1998	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → MSN 23:12UA 630	5h 00m	69%	57%
United Details →	EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45UA 1197	49m Denver	DEN 20:34 → MSN 23:59UA 5214 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	59%	47%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	56m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → MSN 23:42AA 1426	5h 13m	51%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON