Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1641 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1641 EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2866 EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:04 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1641 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:15	MSP 08:13	4%	3%	0.9%	89%
UA 2183 United Flight history →	EWR 07:18	MSP 09:18	7%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	EWR 11:47	MSP 13:45	12%	4%	0.8%	82%
UA 1068 United Flight history →	EWR 13:55	MSP 15:55	14%	6%	0.6%	81%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:00	MSP 17:08	18%	6%	0.8%	78%
UA 1331 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	MSP 23:59	24%	7%	0.7%	62%
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MSP 21:04	27%	10%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON