Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1407 United Flight history →	EWR 07:11	MYR 09:04	8%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 3589 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:55	MYR 18:03	18%	5%	1.3%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	6h 36m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	5h 55m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	4h 39m	94%	83%
United Details →	EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332	7h 04m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047	4h 47m	96%	81%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → MYR 12:22AA 3733 · flown by Envoy	6h 52m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 14:12 → MYR 15:27DL 2467	6h 57m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:58DL 3074	7h 29m	97%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:58DL 3074	4h 59m	68%	53%
Allegiant Details →	EWR 10:55 → CVG 12:50G4 363	50m Hebron	CVG 13:40 → MYR 15:12G4 430	4h 17m	52%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON