tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 9h 17m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 7h 55m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:12 → IAH 17:10UA 2690 3h 21m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 10h 43m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788 3h 50m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 11h 06m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:45AA 2242 8h 54m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:15 → PHX 09:28AA 1282 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → ONT 12:02AA 2244 7h 47m 90% 74%
DeltaDetails → EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21DL 2033 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 8h 49m 86% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 15:41 → DEN 18:23UA 663 57m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 8h 01m 74% 57%
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711 8h 22m 74% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON