Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 530 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 530 EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 254 EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 530 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ORD 07:42	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 3267 American Flight history →	EWR 06:56	ORD 08:44	7%	3%	1.6%	88%
AA 3185 American Flight history →	EWR 05:30	ORD 07:15	7%	3%	2.2%	88%
UA 2488 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	ORD 09:43	10%	4%	0.9%	88%
UA 2800 United Flight history →	EWR 07:15	ORD 09:00	11%	4%	1.1%	88%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	EWR 09:20	ORD 11:04	11%	4%	0.9%	83%
UA 1525 United Flight history →	EWR 10:24	ORD 12:06	11%	4%	0.9%	79%
UA 1875 United Flight history →	EWR 11:25	ORD 13:08	12%	5%	0.9%	79%
AA 3170 American Flight history →	EWR 10:40	ORD 12:25	14%	5%	1.6%	84%
UA 2053 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	ORD 14:53	16%	6%	0.8%	77%
AA 2250 American Flight history →	EWR 14:20	ORD 16:15	22%	10%	1.7%	57%
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	23%	9%	0.8%	50%
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	31%	9%	0.9%	50%
AA 1936 American Flight history →	EWR 17:21	ORD 19:23	31%	12%	1.7%	70%
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	ORD 22:06	31%	9%	1.0%	69%
UA 1998 United Flight history →	EWR 19:12	ORD 21:00	31%	9%	1.0%	52%
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	ORD 20:10	35%	10%	0.9%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON