Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1771 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1771 EWR 06:55 → PBI 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 143 EWR 13:59 → PBI 16:54 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1771 United Flight history →	EWR 06:55	PBI 09:55	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
UA 2018 United Flight history →	EWR 09:06	PBI 12:06	16%	5%	1.0%	92%
B6 2143 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 10:30	PBI 13:23	25%	8%	1.8%	73%
UA 1797 United Flight history →	EWR 13:07	PBI 16:09	26%	10%	2.4%	75%
UA 2650 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	PBI 23:28	31%	13%	1.3%	74%
UA 2659 United Flight history →	EWR 15:25	PBI 18:27	34%	13%	3.3%	75%
B6 143 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:59	PBI 16:54	38%	17%	5.2%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON