Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2646 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2646 EWR 06:30 → PHX 08:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1814 EWR 20:26 → PHX 22:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2646 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PHX 08:42	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 1282 American Flight history →	EWR 07:15	PHX 09:28	14%	4%	0.9%	86%
UA 370 United Flight history →	EWR 11:24	PHX 13:39	16%	4%	0.7%	97%worse than usual
AA 3058 American Flight history →	EWR 10:54	PHX 13:04	18%	5%	0.8%	78%
UA 2858 United Flight history →	EWR 16:30	PHX 18:56	22%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 1816 American Flight history →	EWR 17:29	PHX 19:51	30%	11%	1.0%	63%
UA 1814 United Flight history →	EWR 20:26	PHX 22:48	30%	11%	0.9%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 28m	97%	85%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492	59m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	7h 34m	93%	81%
United Details →	EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:09UA 1701	1h 16m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	7h 34m	92%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON