Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3591 EWR 16:00 → PIT 17:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 3403 EWR 19:29 → PIT 21:06 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3591 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:00	PIT 17:37	14%	4%	1.1%	84%
UA 3447 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 17:35	PIT 19:13	17%	5%	1.0%	80%
UA 3477 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:50	PIT 23:23	19%	4%	1.7%	78%
UA 3403 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:29	PIT 21:06	20%	4%	1.4%	82%
UA 4396 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:05	PIT 14:35	17%	12%	4.8%	83%
UA 4390 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:15	PIT 10:45	18%	8%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON