Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1890 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1890 EWR 07:15 → RDU 08:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1233 EWR 19:20 → RDU 21:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1890 United Flight history →	EWR 07:15	RDU 08:56	7%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 3631 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:00	RDU 11:52	8%	2%	0.9%	100%
UA 2485 United Flight history →	EWR 14:30	RDU 16:11	23%	10%	0.8%	69%
UA 1975 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	RDU 18:43	25%	12%	0.9%	72%
UA 1233 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	RDU 21:10	33%	14%	0.9%	40%
DL 5124 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:30	RDU 11:18	14%	12%	5.6%	86%
DL 5260 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 14:30	RDU 16:20	21%	8%	3.9%	79%
DL 5222 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 19:29	RDU 21:25	43%	23%	8.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON