Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3639 EWR 08:12 → RIC 09:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 3610 EWR 14:50 → RIC 16:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3639 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:12	RIC 09:49	6%	2%	0.9%	85%
UA 3610 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:50	RIC 16:27	12%	4%	0.9%	81%
UA 4176 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 17:45	RIC 19:25	39%	21%	4.1%	61%
UA 4386 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 18:52	RIC 20:30	42%	25%	6.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON