Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1115 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1115 EWR 07:50 → RSW 10:53 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1845 EWR 19:06 → RSW 22:17 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1115 United Flight history →	EWR 07:50	RSW 10:53	12%	4%	13.6%	88%
UA 2044 United Flight history →	EWR 14:21	RSW 17:28	25%	10%	11.5%	63%
UA 1845 United Flight history →	EWR 19:06	RSW 22:17	28%	11%	10.1%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON