Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1826 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 1826 EWR 06:35 → SAN 09:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 573 EWR 18:29 → SAN 21:37 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1826 United Flight history →	EWR 06:35	SAN 09:21	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1626 United Flight history →	EWR 09:51	SAN 12:37	20%	5%	0.7%	78%
UA 210 United Flight history →	EWR 16:59	SAN 19:52	26%	11%	0.7%	67%
UA 1513 United Flight history →	EWR 20:47	SAN 23:40	31%	11%	0.8%	50%
AS 573 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 18:29	SAN 21:37	34%	10%	1.3%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	8h 21m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712	8h 34m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 27m	94%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON