tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 591 United Flight history → EWR 09:29 SAT 12:30 13% 4% 0.6% 87%
UA 515 United Flight history → EWR 12:20 SAT 15:21 13% 6% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:25 → SAT 10:59UA 1789 5h 59m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → SAT 11:09DL 1121 6h 09m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 28m Chicago ORD 09:10 → SAT 12:12UA 490 7h 12m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 3h 47m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SAT 16:29UA 2844 9h 30m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:09UA 1701 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 04m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 7h 01m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 47m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 34m 93% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → SAT 00:20 +1DL 1508 6h 21m 74% 57%
UnitedDetails → EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45UA 1197 54m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 7h 43m 65% 54%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 49m San Francisco SFO 18:37 → SAT 00:29 +1UA 6036 · flown by SkyWest 10h 44m 65% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON