Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1330 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1330 EWR 08:50 → SEA 11:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 462 EWR 17:36 → SEA 20:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1330 United Flight history →	EWR 08:50	SEA 11:57	16%	4%	0.7%	79%
UA 1289 United Flight history →	EWR 11:05	SEA 14:16	18%	5%	0.7%	82%
AS 230 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 09:30	SEA 12:43	21%	4%	0.9%	82%
AS 299 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 07:25	SEA 10:35	24%	4%	0.9%	74%
UA 2387 United Flight history →	EWR 16:25	SEA 19:36	27%	9%	0.7%	59%
AS 356 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 16:31	SEA 19:48	33%	9%	1.1%	73%
UA 1796 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	SEA 23:44	35%	9%	0.8%	57%
AS 462 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 17:36	SEA 20:58	39%	10%	1.1%	72%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51UA 2101	8h 51m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 44m	94%	84%
United Details →	EWR 10:05 → IAD 11:28UA 1691	1h 42m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241	8h 50m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON