Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2115 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2115 EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	10%	3%	0.9%	85%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	17%	5%	1.0%	72%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	18%	6%	0.8%	72%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	21%	6%	0.8%	72%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	24%	6%	0.8%	50%
UA 2080 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	SFO 19:28	24%	10%	0.8%	62%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	26%	8%	0.9%	68%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	26%	9%	0.9%	73%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	28%	10%	0.8%	68%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	30%	12%	0.9%	62%
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	33%	12%	0.9%	52%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	34%	11%	0.9%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	98%	84%
United Details →	EWR 14:15 → CLE 16:01UA 3616 · flown by Republic	1h 39m Cleveland	CLE 17:40 → SFO 19:55UA 234	8h 40m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 17m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON