Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1089 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day B6 1089 EWR 06:00 → SJU 09:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 2389 EWR 21:55 → SJU 01:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1089 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SJU 09:58	13%	6%	0.9%	86%
UA 2143 United Flight history →	EWR 08:00	SJU 12:04	16%	5%	0.8%	69%
UA 1556 United Flight history →	EWR 09:46	SJU 13:45	19%	5%	0.7%	77%
B6 1889 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 11:18	SJU 15:14	26%	8%	0.9%	80%
UA 1543 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	SJU 23:50	31%	10%	0.9%	67%
B6 2389 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 21:55	SJU 01:59	37%	15%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON