Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2630 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2630 EWR 07:00 → SLC 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2033 EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2630 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SLC 10:00	9%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 1009 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:15	SLC 10:13	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	EWR 17:59	SLC 21:21	28%	11%	0.7%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	7h 20m	93%	81%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	59m Charlotte	CLT 09:00 → SLC 11:20AA 2602	7h 20m	93%	81%
United Details →	EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:09UA 1701	1h 31m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 22m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON