tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2624 United Flight history → EWR 18:19 SMF 21:48 22% 11% 0.7% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 54m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 51m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:45 → LAX 13:41UA 2679 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 10h 21m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 2h 45m Denver DEN 11:30 → SMF 13:05UA 1415 9h 35m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 95% 83%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 06:30 → PDX 09:33AS 1630 1h 27m Portland PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon 9h 03m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492 1h 19m Houston IAH 10:00 → SMF 12:07UA 2773 9h 07m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45UA 1197 55m Denver DEN 20:40 → SMF 22:15UA 1268 8h 03m 67% 52%
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:59 → SMF 22:33AA 3314 8h 23m 68% 48%
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:29 → PHX 19:51AA 1816 57m Phoenix PHX 20:48 → SMF 22:42AA 2048 8h 13m 68% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON