tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2772 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2772 United Flight history → EWR 08:30 SRQ 11:19 18% 6% 17.5% 66%
UA 1324 United Flight history → EWR 20:17 SRQ 23:23 29% 12% 17.3% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438 7h 08m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 8h 16m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 08:59 → SRQ 10:50AA 2693 5h 50m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800 2h 10m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 7h 57m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 6h 46m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115 6h 53m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 7h 31m 96% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EWR 18:30 → MIA 21:55AA 3119 59m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 29m 63% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON