Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3630 at 09:53 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 3630 EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 1527 EWR 22:17 → STL 23:44 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3630 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:53	STL 11:41	9%	2%	0.8%	91%
UA 3556 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:30	STL 16:12	16%	4%	0.8%	76%
UA 1527 United Flight history →	EWR 22:17	STL 23:44	27%	11%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON