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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 53m Dulles IAD 08:15 → STT 12:20UA 1443 6h 20m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492 1h 11m Houston IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908 9h 43m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 09:57 → STT 13:48AA 2432 8h 48m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902 8h 23m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → STT 15:20DL 1889 8h 15m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45AA 1196 1h 22m Miami MIA 10:07 → STT 12:59AA 2744 7h 28m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:05 → STT 16:11AA 2943 10h 20m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → EWR 08:00 → MIA 11:10AA 1152 1h 58m Miami MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738 8h 00m 96% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON