Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1979 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1979 EWR 07:00 → TPA 09:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1544 EWR 18:55 → TPA 21:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1979 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	TPA 09:51	6%	2%	17.2%	94%
UA 1576 United Flight history →	EWR 09:05	TPA 11:59	11%	3%	17.1%	81%
UA 2776 United Flight history →	EWR 13:41	TPA 16:39	18%	6%	17.1%	75%
UA 2777 United Flight history →	EWR 15:07	TPA 18:07	21%	8%	17.2%	77%
UA 1544 United Flight history →	EWR 18:55	TPA 21:59	27%	11%	16.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON